Whatever the situation, the regulatory framework remains essential for the coherent development of 5G
For the past three years, 5G has been part of most national plans in developed countries. Meanwhile, some emerging countries are integrating 5G deployment as the ultimate enabler of their connectivity. Indeed, the promise of wireless gigabit connectivity appears as a miracle solution for countries where the costs and risks of network construction are very high. Regardless of the situation, the regulatory framework remains essential for a coherent development of 5G.
Gigabit connectivity: the new frontier
5G can meet connectivity needs.
The demand for fixed network capacity has far exceeded the forecasts made 10 years ago, largely due to multi-screen usage by OTTs.
Similarly, demand for capacity has exploded on mobile networks, with average traffic increases of 100% in emerging countries and 50% in developed countries. The emergence of applications and devices capable of supporting them is the main driver.
At the same time, in developed countries, the density of connected devices is expected to rise from 1,000 to 100,000 per km² over the next 10 years.
In this context, 5G deployment addresses two types of demand: from the general public, who wish to extend fixed usage to mobile networks, and from industry, which requires a network suited to unleashing the potential of the IoT.
...But operators must ensure profitability
All the advances linked to 5G and its new applications come with significant direct and indirect costs for operators.
The ITU and BEREC have already warned about the potential effects of 5G rollouts on the digital divide in the residential market. To ensure a reasonable return on investment, most operators are planning initial deployments either in dense urban areas or in very specific industrial zones to serve businesses. This raises the risk of increasing the digital divide, both within a single country and between emerging and developed countries.
How to effectively integrate 5G into a national broadband plan?
In the context of 5G rollouts, public policy plays a structural role in organizing the market, facilitating investment, and creating conditions for growth.
Integrating 5G into national broadband roadmaps must consider four key and interdependent elements:
1. Identify demand
A successful 5G launch relies on existing or latent and potentially significant demand.
5G addresses not only a need for higher capacity, but also for symmetrical applications and ultra-low latency. If a country’s industry is not ready to massively adopt connected devices or launch services based on this technology, or if the residential market cannot afford the applications targeted at them, it may be more appropriate to first stimulate growth and usage under 4G networks.
It’s also important to account for the major differences between countries with high fixed-line penetration and those that are mobile-centric. In the former, fixed/mobile continuity will underpin mass application development, while in the latter, it will be about enhancing “wireless-centric” OTT-type application usage.
From an industrial perspective, public stakeholders must find the right timing. Launching too early—before applications and devices are available—would cause frustration. But launching too late would hinder development. No one wants a scenario where customers with next-gen connected vehicles—whose features influenced their purchase decision—cannot actually use them.
2. Assess network maturity
The promise of wireless ultra-broadband must be supported by a fully coherent end-to-end network, particularly with sufficiently capable backhaul and backbone infrastructure. Without this, the services simply won’t function.
Depending on a country’s situation, public authorities may require various actions regarding the telecom ecosystem:
- Upgrading low-quality network segments
- Ensuring network security
- Extending network coverage
- Establishing new wholesale market rules to regulate relationships between application and network providers
3. Consider the migration path
The “tunnel effect” seen with the complete replacement of obsolete fixed networks by digital networks in Latin America—or the implementation of 4G in Southeast Asian countries lagging behind on 3G—cannot happen in the same way with 5G. The need for general backbone and backhaul upgrades cannot be ignored.
Thus, it would be unrealistic—except in specific cases like major cities in China or Latin America—to expect countries behind on 4G deployment to transition seamlessly to 5G.
4. Avoid widening the digital divide
Finally, it is crucial not to overlook the importance of public regulatory frameworks in reducing the digital divide. Although less profitable in the short term, 5G could enable ultra-high-capacity coverage in poorly served areas today.
Implementing targeted plans, such as exclusive usage periods for operators who invest in these areas, could be one solution to foster both technological deployment and the growth of associated services.
While the integration of 5G in the 5-year plans of developed countries is a given, emerging countries must consider the necessary path toward successful implementation of this new technological environment. First, they should focus on harmonizing their broadband infrastructure and establishing public-private partnerships aligned with broad industrial objectives.
